Leave It to Bibi
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has got an attack on Iran all figured out.
Much attention has been generated in Israel and the United States by Richard Silverstein with his post at Tikkun Olam titled Bibi's Secret War Plan. He writes:
This is Bibi’s sales pitch for war. Its purpose is to be used in meetings with members of the Shminiya , the eight-member security cabinet which currently finds a 4-3 majority opposed to an Iran strike. Bibi uses this sales pitch to persuade the recalcitrant ministers of the cool, clean, refreshing taste of war. My source informs me that it has also been shared in confidence with selected journalists who are in the trusted inner media circle (who, oh who, might they be?). … I don't believe the IDF wrote it. It feels more likely it came from the shop of national security advisor Yaakov Amidror, a former general, settler true-believer and Bibi confidant. It could also have been produced by Defense Minister Barak."
The briefing reads, in part:
The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. … The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions. … A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.
The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak. … Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.
We're looking at this all wrong. Sure, Bibi looks through an attack through rose-colored glasses. But, sticking with the color metaphors, a silver-lining exists: at least he has no plans to use "unconventional warheads" -- nuclear weapons.
Besides, Israel's outgoing civil defense minister assures us at Reuters:
"There is no room for hysteria. Israel's home front is prepared as never before," Matan Vilnai, a former general who is about to leave his cabinet post to become ambassador to China, told the Maariv daily.
He believes the war would likely last a month and "Echoing an assessment already voiced by Defence Minister Ehud Barak, Vilnai was quoted as saying hundreds of missiles could hit Israeli cities daily and kill some 500 people in a war with Iran, which has promised strong retaliation if attacked."
To Israelis wondering if they or their loved ones will be among The 500, he basically said, man up: it goes with the territory.
"Just as the citizens of Japan have to understand they are likely to be hit by an earthquake, Israelis must realise that anyone who lives here has to be prepared for missiles striking the home front."
File that one under Equivalencies, False.
Meanwhile, also drawing headlines has been a petition reported by Haaretz:
More than 400 Israelis, including Tel Aviv University law professors Menachem Mautner and Chaim Gans, have recently signed an online petition calling on Israel Defense Forces pilots to refuse to obey if ordered to bomb Iran.
The petition calls a decision to launch a strike against Iran a "highly mistaken gamble" that would only delay Iran's nuclear program, without stopping it, and would come "at an exorbitant price."
Israel Hayom's Dan Margolit tries to make the case that it's no different from right-wing resistance by the settlers. He zeroes in on former law professor Menachem Mautner.
For some time now Mautner has felt a deep sense of anxiety over the possibility of a military strike in Iran, and when he read Defense Minister Ehud Barak's interview with Ari Shavit in Haaretz he decided to take action, which in essence is a call to thwart a legal order issued by the government. … How has he lent his hand in support of a petition that is a call for an undemocratic rebellion? Indeed, he has always been a champion of democratic virtues.
With his signature, [former law professor Menachem] Mautner gave legitimacy to the "hilltop youth" of Judea and Samaria and to those of their ilk who have authored manuscripts calling for a return to biblical law. … The professor tried explaining that right-wing insubordination is done for the purpose of creating a Halachic state (a state run according to Jewish religious law) and is inappropriate to begin with, while the Left acts to return Israel to its good old values.
Refusing to bomb Iran may be illegal on the part of pilots today. But in the future bombing Iran might be judged not only illegal a war crime.
Author's Note: For those wondering, according to Google, the phrase "Leave It to Bibi" has not been previously used.