Foreign Policy In Focus

The U.S. government has decided to lift the economic and diplomatic pressure that made reform in Burma possible.

Cross-posted from the United to End Genocide blog.

Why is President Obama about to meet with leaders in Burma who are systematically fomenting hatred and violence that has already claimed innocent lives, destroyed entire villages and displaced tens of thousands?

In just a few days, President Obama will travel to Burma to recognize progress that one of the most brutal regimes on the planet has made toward democracy. Now that modest improvements have been made or pledged by the regime, and Aung San Suu Kyi is free, the U.S. government has decided to lift the economic and diplomatic pressure that made reform in Burma possible.

That is bad news if you are part of an ethnic minority in Burma. And it is life threatening if you are a member of the Rohingya Muslim minority.

Systematic hate speech and entreaties for the local population to isolate and attack the Rohingya Muslim minority are pervasive in western Burma. The Burmese military stand aside or actively participate in attacks against innocent men, women and children. More than one hundred people have already lost their lives, tens of thousands have lost their homes, and over one hundred thousand have been displaced.

What is the U.S. government doing about it? On Sunday, President Obama will become the first President to visit Burma. He is there to recognize and congratulate the military-dominated government for making modest reforms toward democracy. As hundreds of thousands of Rohingya continue to live in fear, President Obama will be congratulating a government that wants to ethnically cleanse every one of them from Burma.

Burma’s President Thein Sein--who Obama will be sitting down to dine with--has been actively fomenting hatred against the Rohingya community. He has gone so far to ask the United Nations to help him ethnically cleanse Burma by forcing 800,000 Rohingya people out of their home villages and into refugee camps or out of the country altogether!

I saw what violence and persecution looks like first-hand in Burma when I snuck into Kachin State last May. I saw entire villages abandoned, its population driven into makeshift camps filled with desperate people without adequate food, shelter of medical care. I spoke with families whose loved ones had been tortured, raped, incarcerated or killed by Burmese troops. Without international pressure on the regime, I know what the Rohingya are experiencing will only continue to get worse.

An entire people are under attack not because of what they have done but because of who they are. Instead of traveling to Burma, President Obama should be leading the call for a United Nations observer mission to investigate the violence in Rakhine State, deter the escalation of the violence and hold the perpetrators accountable. The leading role that the Obama administration played in scaling back sanctions on Burma obligates the U.S. government to act urgently to hold the Burmese government to its responsibilities to protect its ethnic populations.

We’ve seen these warning signs before. The hateful rhetoric of Rakhine monks is reminiscent of the hateful propaganda directed at the Tutsi population and their sympathizers leading up to, and during the Rwandan genocide. While renewing calls for their expulsion from Burma, several Rakhine monks have urged the local population to sever all relations with the Rohingya, including trade and the provision of humanitarian aid and have called on Rakhines to expose Rohingya sympathizers as national traitors, potentially exposing them to violent attacks.

There is no word to describe the response from the United States and the international community other than inadequate. The conditions that led to two major outbreaks of mass killings in the last few months are worsening daily. Greater loss of life and displacement are a certainty without a change of course.

In a day and age in which technology affords us the ability to connect with people across the world, we can no longer claim ignorance to the fact that the Rohingya people are being slaughtered, displaced, and terrorized. When we look back on the books of history, will this be another example of when we failed to show up or showed up too late?

Take action: Tell President Obama to call for an end to ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya.

Tom Andrews is the President of United to End Genocide.

(Pictured: Burma's 2007 Saffron Revolution.)

Note: An earlier version of this post mistakenly attributed Roland Watson's quotes to David Tharckabaw.

At Dictator Watch, Roland Watson asks, "Why Are There No Protests in Burma?"    

Thus far Burma's military dictatorship has been immune to the uprisings to which the world has been witness to -- or engaged in -- elsewhere. Perhaps that's because Burma comes in a close second to North Korea as the most merciless administration in the world. You think Bahrain and Libya have been barbaric in their responses to protests? One shudders to think how North Korea (where, actually, an opposition movement is unimaginable) and Burma's ruling junta would react. Watson, though, sees a ray of hope.

He begins by citing all the nations where mass protests have been mounted and criticizing the United States both for supporting rulers such as Mubarak and failing to switch their support to the protesters in timely fashion. He then writes that

. . the generals of the SPDC military junta . . . are among the most repressive in the world [including] ethnic cleansing . . . committed against minority groups. The theft of Burma's natural resources by the junta, its cronies, and their international partners, is also so severe that it is in the first tier, financially, of worldwide corruption. It is therefore a surprise that there have not been any demonstrations in the country.

. . . As a long-time Burma analyst and activist, I personally do not understand the popular inaction. Obviously, there is fear and a multitude of other factors. But still, one would expect some sort of response.

At first glance, sounds suicidal. Watson explains.

The crackdown on the Saffron [monks] Uprising in 2007 only occurred after the junta was able to bring troops from border areas to Rangoon. The local commanders did not want to fire on the protestors. It has also been revealed that some leading generals opposed the crackdown.

There is significant dissent and factionalism within the junta. Really, everyone is positioning for power in advance of the demise of the top general . . . Than Shwe.

In fact

There is good reason to believe that the regime's response to renewed demonstrations would be muted, particularly in light of the precedent set by the Egyptian military.

Bear in mind that Watson wrote that before Gaddafi's brutal suppression in Libya. He presents another reason, though, that the junta's reaction to new protests might not be as harsh as we've come to expect from it.

In addition, a new crackdown would end the hesitancy to launch war crimes prosecution against the SPDC.

Perhaps more to the point, Watson suggests that a crackdown by the junta could meet with an armed resistance that was absent in previous protests.

Right now, the resistance groups in Burma are working to establish a federal army. The generals have already exhibited an inability to move against them singly. As a coordinated front, [the resistance groups] will become much more powerful.

As for specific tactics, he recommends that this time

. . . the Burmese should avoid marches. As the protestors in Egypt illustrated, it is better to choose a central location, with many access points and surrounded by buildings for video documentation to rally. In Rangoon, one such area is Bandoola Park/Square.

The generals can hide in Naypyidaw [the new capital], but their rule will be a sham once the people of Burma control Rangoon [the old capital]. There will then be a coup against Than Shwe, or he and his family will flee to China or Singapore. The people of Burma will be through with the likes of [them]! . . . Democracy has a cost as the adage says "No Pain, no Gain". The secret is to know when to spend it. That time is now.

For her part, Aung San Suu Kyi has offered cautious support for the Egypt protests, while telling the Toronto Globe and Mail that she'd like to link up with pro-democracy activists via Facebook and Twitter. "I think we need to -- what do you call it -- raise the megabyte?"

Meanwhile in a piece for Irrawaddy, The Dictator's Survival Guide, the Burmese exile publication's managing editor Kya Zwa Moe ponders why the junta has lasted for almost 50 years.

What are some of the secrets to a dictator's survival? Here are some that Than Shwe and the Burmese generals have practiced: 

— Crush all protests as soon as possible
— Consolidate all security forces, especially the military, under one command
— Apply divide and rule techniques among dissidents and the public   
— Show no sympathy toward any dissent (as Tunisian leader Ben Ali did for the street vendor.)
— Never negotiate with opponents
— Pay no attention to pressure or suggestions from the international community

Than Shwe has applied these techniques since taking power and they are still working well for him. His recent formation of a "civilian government,"  following the convening of a "civilian parliament," appears to be his attempt to plant his seed of power in Burma and watch it grow even from beyond the grave.

If you think that Burma sounds like a horror movie, you're right. Perhaps, though, should mass protests re-occur there, the urge to keep from jeopardizing its developmental and commercial deals with China and India would be enough to keep the junta from responding to mass protests with killings, torture, and imprisonment as it has in the past.