Foreign Policy In Focus

Cross-posted from Mondoweiss.  

SEPT. 21 -- Hoo boy. It was a real Israel lovefest in Manhattan as Republicans, members of U.S. pro-Israel groups and Likud politicians convened at the prestigious W Hotel in Union Square, Manhattan yesterday morning. The press conference was led by GOP presidential hopeful Rick Perry and KM Danny Danon. From JPost:

Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry will hold a press conference with American and Israeli-Jewish leaders in New York on Tuesday in which he is expected to address the upcoming deliberations at the United Nations, MK Danny Danon (Likud), said on Saturday night.

Danon, who will participate at the press conference, said he would ask Perry ahead of the conference to adopt the initiative the MK is advancing to annex Judea and Samaria in response to the unilateral Palestinian moves at the UN.

Danon, already in the U.S. to speak at nationwide Israel fundraisers and rallies prior to the UN vote, has proposed an "Annexation for Declaration Initiative," which would "establish full sovereignty over the Jewish communities of the West Bank . . . our historic homeland of Judea and Samaria:"

Under [my] three-state solution, Arab-Israelis residing within Israel would be welcome to join the official new State of Israel. The remaining enclaves of Palestinian towns and villages in Judea and Samaria would become part of either Egypt or Jordan, and the Egyptian and Jordanian borders would extend accordingly to these designated towns.

[Snip]

Both Jordan and Egypt have expressed strong support and concern for Palestinians living in the West Bank. If they truly care so much, then they should readily agree to a three-state solution and incorporate the Palestinian towns located adjacent to their current borders.

Perry avoided endorsing this proposal, though, proclaiming his support for a two-state solution (but not at this present time through the UN). Most of his remarks were directly or indirectly aimed at the Obama Administration rather than the Palestinian Authority or the PLO, though he said that the U.S. should consider cutting all aid to the Palestinians if the UN vote goes through, a measure already proposed by members of Congress. 

While Perry sought to present himself as a pro-Israel centrist, members of Congress have approved a resolution that mirrors Danon's. The annexations would include the settlement areas "as a start," and expand to encompass the "empty land" of Area C, a designation for almost 60% of total West Bank territory (less than 10% of the total Palestinian population resides in Area C). The land, susceptible to drought, is at least partly underpopulated by Palestinians because under the Oslo Accords, Area C has seen:

Demolition of livelihood structures -- including commercial structures, educational facilities, wells, water cisterns, water storage tanks, farmland and animal pens -- by Israeli authorities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem increased by about 85 percent in 2010 and so far in 2011.

[Snip]

In Area C, Israel retains military authority and full control over the building and planning sphere, while responsibility for the provision of services falls to the PA.

About 70 percent of Area C is classified as a firing zone, settlement areas, or nature reserves, and is inaccessible to Palestinians.

Danon argues that all this is right and proper because the land constitutes what was "Judea and Samaria": there's no Palestine, he insists, never was and certainly won't be on the Jews' God-given property. So while it is right for South Sudan to pursue statehood, in Danon's opinion -- "just like Israel, its people live with a sense of resolve and confidence that their existence is a God-given right," he has said, and "the creation of this new nation deserves the attention and admiration of the entire international community" -- it is not right, not God-given and certainly not admirable for the Palestinians to attempt to do so now or ever, as it will just lead to the establishment of an Iranian-backed "terrorist state" like Gaza.

All this will no doubt garner a robust "Amen!" from Perry, since he is all too happy to project past onto present, Israel onto Texas, Arabs onto Mexicans, and the "struggles" of Texan pioneers in the 1830s and 40s onto the "struggles" of Israeli settlers in the the 21st century. As he rather famously wrote in The Jerusalem Post last week: "historian T.R. Fehrenbach once observed that my home state of Texas and Israel share the experience of civilized men and women thrown into new and harsh conditions, beset by enemies." 

So it's exactly the same -- except for the part where Texans actually participated in a referendum over their annexation by the U.S. (granted, it was a referendum that whoeheartedly endorsed slavery). The non-Israeli residents of Judea and Samaria will presumably not have the luxury these (white) Texans did, though they will certainly be welcome to vote with their feet on whether they remain in Greater Israel or not.

Yet, as Max Blumenthal has pointed out, Perry's remarks are in fact, too clever by half. According to Blumenthal, what Fehrenbach actually said in his work Lone Star: A History of Texas and the Texans was this:

The Texan’s attitudes, his inherent chauvinism and the seeds of his belligerence, sprouted from his conscious effort to take and hold his land. It was the reaction of essentially civilized men and women thrown into new and harsh conditions, beset by enemies they despised. The closest 20th-century counterpart is the State of Israel, born in blood in another primordial land.

With that in mind, Danon is even more deserving than Glenn Beck is of an honorary Texan citizenship. Hell, make him an honorary Texas Ranger. Make everyone in Likud (among other parties) an honorary Texas Ranger. They could then do some whistlestop campaigning in the West Bank wearing official badges. 

Yisrael Beitenu's Avigdor Lieberman would probably look good in a bolo tie, and I think spurs would not look out of place on Im Tirtzu jackboots. But I shudder to think what Perry would wear to such a West Bank rally . . . especially as a U.S. president.

Perry will also be hosting a fundraiser targeted at Jewish donors in Manhattan this week (which may or may not be part of the venue with Danon on 9/20).

Paul Mutter is a graduate student at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU and a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus.

If one thing has the potential to unite the fractious U.S. House of Representatives, it is the Palestinian bid for statehood at the UN. First up, we have Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Chairwoman of the influential House Foreign Affairs Committee, pushing a bill that would make U.S. funding of UN agencies conditional on how the body votes this month on Palestinian statehood. But the bill, which was just presented in the House, would also allow the U.S. to suspend financial support to the Palestinian Authority. It certainly has some interesting suggestions. Three stand out in particular, from a summary of the 153-page bill released by the Chairwoman's office:

Title IV – Status of Palestinian Entities at the United Nations: Opposes efforts by the Palestinian leadership to evade a negotiated settlement with Israel and undermine opportunities for peace by seeking de facto recognition of a Palestinian state by the UN (through gaining membership for “Palestine” in UN agencies or programs). Withholds U.S. contributions from any UN agency or program that upgrades the status of the PLO/Palestinian observer mission.

Title V – Goldstone Report: States that it is U.S. policy to lead a high-level diplomatic campaign calling for the revocation and repudiation of the Goldstone Report and its follow-on measures by the UN General Assembly. Also states that it is U.S. policy to consider the Goldstone Report, which falsely accused Israel of deliberately attacking Palestinian civilians during Operation Cast Lead, to be irredeemably biased and unworthy of consideration, legitimization, or support. Also states that it is U.S. policy to strongly and unequivocally oppose any consideration, legitimization, or support of the Goldstone Report or measures stemming from the report in multilateral organizations, and to encourage other nations to repudiate the report. Would also withhold U.S. funding from the Goldstone Report and its preparatory and follow-on measures.

Title VIII – UNRWA: Prohibits U.S. funding to UNRWA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which aids Palestinian refugees. Despite failing to meet the requirements under U.S. law to obtain foreign assistance, UNRWA has received about $500 million in FY 2009 and 2010 alone, with over $230 million in further funding included in the Administration’s FY 2012 budget request. The prohibition on funding would remain in place until UNRWA: vets its staff and aid recipients through U.S. watch lists for ties to Foreign Terrorist Organizations; stops engaging in anti-Israel propaganda and politicized activities; improves its accountability and transparency; and stops banking with any financial institutions under U.S. designation for terror financing or money laundering.

So yes, while it's little we have not heard before ("Second verse, same as the first!"), it is demonstrative of conservative opinion these days towards Israel, the Palestinians and the UN (and, arguably, "internationalism" in general).

But we also have House Democrats, despite Obama's vow to exercise the U.S.'s veto power in the UN Security Council against the Palestinian effort, joining with Republicans in proposing punitive actions against the Palestinians. Democrat Steny Hoyer of Maryland and Republican Eric Cantor of Virginia have introduced a (non-binding) resolution, drawing hundreds of signatures, which would strip the Palestinian Authority of the US$600 million worth of aid payments it receives from the U.S. government. Democratic Congressman of NJ Steve Rothman, who sits on the powerful House Appropriate Committee, and who supports cutting aid to the Palestinians if they proceed at the UN, had the following to say to Washington Jewish Weekly:

The P.A. is acting irrationally and against its own interests. These resolutions are unambiguous, and when put into effect . . . will have a devastating impact on the Palestinian economy. Most of the Palestinian leadership has decided to turn a blind eye to the terrible consequences that will result upon their own people.

Another Democratic-backed resolution is aimed at U.S. allies who have expressed support for the Palestinian initiative. It would "prohibit Foreign Military Financing Program (FMFP) assistance to countries that vote in the UN General Assembly in favor of recognizing a Palestinian state in the absence of a negotiated border agreement between the Government of Israel and the Palestinian Authority." So far, it's main supporters are all Democrats -- Steve Israel and Eliot Engel of NY, Robert Brady of Pennsylvania and Steve Rothman of NJ. None of these individuals are no-name Congressmen: Israel, a member of several Israeli caucuses in the House, was appointed by Nancy Pelosi to serve as the head of the 2012 Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and, along with Rothman, sits on the House Appropriations Committee. Engel is a member of the aforementioned House Foreign Affairs Committee. Brady has a seat on the House Armed Services Committee.

The multibillion-dollar FMFP is overseen by the Department of Defense but ultimately answers to Congress because it was established during the Cold War by Congress through a law called the Foreign Assistance Act. The bill, first reported on by Washington Jewish Weekly, is based on the rationale that foreign countries that oppose Israel should no longer receive U.S. military assistance.

One presumes that the bill is primarily aimed at Egypt and Jordan, who are, respectively, the second and third largest FMFP recipients in the Middle East, with Israel being the  number one beneficiary of the program (the numbers for 2009: Israel, US$2.55 billion; Egypt, US$1.3 billion; Jordan, US$335 million).

This is the Department of Defense's description of the FMFP (kind of reads like a press release for General Dynamics, doesn't it?):

The principal means of ensuring America’s security is through the deterrence of potential aggressors who would threaten the U.S. or its allies. Foreign Military Financing, the U.S. government program for financing through grants or loans the acquisition of U.S. military articles, services, and training, supports U.S. regional stability goals and enables friends and allies to improve their defense capabilities. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) is made available under the authority of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA). Congress appropriates FMF funds in the International Affairs Budget, the Department of State allocates the funds for eligible friends and allies; and the Department of Defense executes the program. FMF helps countries meet their legitimate defense needs, promotes U.S. national security interests by strengthening coalitions with friends and allies, cements cooperative bilateral military relationships, and enhances interoperability with U.S. forces. Because FMF monies are used to purchase U.S. military equipment and training, FMF contributes to a strong U.S. defense industrial base, which benefits both America’s armed forces and American workers.

Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkey also benefit from FMFP assistance.

Considering that the list of proscribed recipients would include valuable U.S. "allies" in the Mideast, it is not an idle threat (whereas, say, China, the EU and Russia could care less -- more arms sales opportunities for them worldwide).

Then again, the Democratic-written bill would allow the president to review the suspensions on a case by case basis, so maybe it is an idle threat after all. Still, it sends an inescapable message: you're expendable when it comes to Israel.

It says a lot about U.S. politics that while an international small arms treaty cannot win Congressional U.S. support because of Second Amendment concerns, a bill that would suspend all military aid to human rights violators such as the Egyptian, Turkish, Pakistani and Saudi Arabian militaries only exists because of the U.S. commitment to blocking a UN recognition of Palestinian statehood, which, according to the U.S. Government, is conditional on the following:

Palestinian State: No aid is permitted for a future Palestinian state unless the Secretary of State certifies that the governing entity of the state

1. has demonstrated a firm commitment to peaceful coexistence with the State of Israel [NB: this would exclude Hamas as it stands today];

2. is taking appropriate measures to counter terrorism and terrorist financing in the West Bank and Gaza in cooperation with Israel and others; and

3. is working with other countries in the region to vigorously pursue efforts to establish a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace in the Middle East that will enable Israel and an independent Palestinian state to exist within the context of full and normal relationships.

This restriction does not apply to aid meant to reform the Palestinian governing entity so that it might meet the three conditions outlined above. Additionally, the President is permitted to waive this restriction for national security purposes.

These bipartisan Congressional efforts show just how much Washington is willing to gamble on Israel's behalf this September. While some Democrats have announced their opposition to the GOP's UN-targeted bill, the FMFP and aid suspension resolutions may yet be one "liberal" defense-slashing bill we might see many Congressional Republicans supporting.

Might. After all, the defense industry sells many of the same weapons to both Israel and countries like Saudi Arabia. Who cares who recognizes who as long as both keep buying!

Paul Mutter is a graduate student at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU and a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus.

Cross-posted from Mondoweiss.  

Knesset member Michael Ben-Ari of the far-right National Union party coalition has announced a call to action for Israeli settlers in the West Bank to march out and confront anticipated Palestinian demonstrations in the Occupied Territories this month, which he describes as delegitimizing provocations by “the Arabs” and Israel's "far-left.” He has prepared an outline for his campaign titled “September: The Threat of an Opportunity - Changing the Rules of the Game." This announcement follows a recent spate of "price taggings" reportedly committed by Israeli settlers against Palestinians, the IDF and Peace Now activists in the run-up to the controversial Palestinian bid for recognition as a state through the UN.

Although the IDF is providing both training and weapons to Israeli settlers (and the Israeli courts have effectively immunized settlers from prosecution if they shoot Palestinian "trespassers"), Ben-Ari anticipates a scenario where the security forces will be overwhelmed, and thus cut and run: “[I] doubt that the security forces can effectively protect every settlement, in the event that demonstrations break out simultaneously all across the region. In such cases, the result will be [a retreat] – resulting in the abandonment of Jewish territory, looting [by Palestinians], property damage, and worse.” Ben-Ari has said that the settlers who flock to his banner must make every effort not to give an inch in the face of the "enemy" -- that is, both Palestinians and the Israeli government, which he accuses of being willing to let the West Bank to become a "terrorist state" rather than endure the "burden" of the settlements any longer. 

Below is (my) English translation of Ben-Ari’s manifesto as reported on by Israeli news outlet Arutz 7:

The [Palestinians’] September demonstrations present an opportunity to tell everyone, whether they want to hear it or not, that Judea and Samaria are our home:

We're here! This is the legacy of our forefathers!
We're here to stay forever!
We're here! For the people of Israel!

The security forces have amply demonstrated that going into the anticipated September protests [by the Palestinians], they do not share the settlers’ concerns. Undoubtedly, this is the result of a political consensus that views the settlements as a “burden.” Even though the security forces have the option of working with the settlers to protect their homes and property, there has been minimal preparation by the security forces to mobilize them.

This is the settlers’ chance to declare that they are here.

There are 330,000 settlers in the West Bank (excluding East Jerusalem)! Settlers’ [security] squads, security coordinators and patrol vehicles are permanently on alert. And settlers have knowledge of the area and know the weaknesses of the [Palestinian] enemy.

We believe that if the settlers do not act to defend the settlements, no one else will. Ehud Barak and Netanyahu desire the establishment of a terrorist state on Israeli soil; they will not defend the settlers.

The plan is to organize hundreds and even thousands of kids, children, women and old men (with the assistance of reinforcements) from the settlements and walk right up to the Palestinian demonstrators, waving Israeli flags as we march across Israeli territory.

These actions will repeat themselves across Israel; the settlers will face down the opposing forces. No more [Israeli] soldiers and border guards in front of groups of Arab women and children. But children with children, boys with boys and women with women – it will destroy the “effect of September” and this will change the equation on the ground forever.

[Snip]

The campaign staff will include representatives of all relevant bodies, mayors, community leaders, and residents' committees . . . representatives of the hilltop youth, and the like. When this goes down it will run effectively, but we will struggle in some areas:

The headquarters unit will be headed by an operations officer and team coordinators. Staff will unite all the existing workforce . . . [and] will prepare an operational plan based on the independent agenda of the settlers, and [staff will] organize marches and mass rallies outside the villages but also will be responsible for sending a response force for each locality where the event takes place against the terrorists.

The logistics team will ensure the supply of equipment for the marchers and a regular supply of food and water. The equipment provided will include legal “self-protection equipment” which would allow activists to defend themselves and retaliate in case of assault.

Much of the enemy’s campaign is going to take place in the media. Arabs run the media campaign, and at the disposal of the Arabs and leftists are not only most of the media establishment, but also many skilled speakers. The communications team will be based primarily on the Forum speakers in the West Bank with the assistance of the observation unit.

Lawyers and jurists that will handle legal challenges arising from the defense minister should he try to argue that these actions will harm the residents of Judea and Samaria. If any settlers are arrested during the events, the legal team will come to their assistance.

The Arutz 7 reporting obliquely references the necessity of reaching out to foreign organizations to carry out this campaign. It is not clear what organizations Ben-Ari and his supporters have in mind, though the French Jewish Defense League (JDL) has announced that it is coordinating the dispatch of volunteer "guards" who have military training with five West Bank settlements. The JDL, and the banned far-right Israeli political party Kach/Kahane Chai, were both founded by ultra-nationalist Israeli politician Meir Kahane. The JDL itself is allowed to operate in the U.S. and the EU, where it has ties to the anti-immigrant and anti-Islamic British Defense League. 

Ben-Ari seems to envision that the Palestinian effort at the UN -- which Ramallah argues is a necessity in the face of the Israeli government's refusal to return to peace talks -- will eventually lead to the same sort of withdrawal the Israelis undertook in Sinai and Gaza. A collective warning from the Israeli intelligence community urging the government to reevaluate its recalcitrance over returning to peace talks with Ramallah suggests that a schism is growing among Israeli elites about how to respond to the Palestinian initiative at the UN. 

The National Union holds that the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, is an integral part of Israel (referring to the Occupied Territories by the Biblical designation of "Judea and Samaria"). It has frequently butted heads with Netanyahu's policies in the past -- because they don't go far enough (i.e., formally annexing Israeli's post-1967 territorial gains). Given the likelihood of a pro-Palestinian vote from the UN General Assembly by the end of the month, and the growing number of prominent Israeli voices expressing opposition to the Tel Aviv's response to the vote, Ben-Ari and the settlers seem determined to be resorting to the tried-and-true tactic of changing the "facts on the ground," lest a resumption negotiations scale back their gains (and, in the event of a binding UN resolution, allow a host of lawsuits against the Israeli government, settlements and security forces in the West Bank to proceed).

NB: It is not entirely clear if the Hebrew text presented by Arutz 7 is Ben-Ari's report itself, or a condensed version edited by Arutz 7, though other Israeli news outlets have quoted pieces of the Arutz 7 text below as Ben-Ari's own words).

Paul Mutter is a graduate student at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU and a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus.

Israeli security forces report that they have arrested at least 100 suspected members of Hamas and claim to have foiled multiple bombing and kidnapping plots. These actions would seem to indicate a severe setback for Hamas's influence in the Occupied Territories and undermine prospects for reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. With the UN vote approaching, the timing of the announcement can only help buttress the Netanyahu government's security credentials after the embarrassment of the August 18th Eilat attacks. The arrests also coincide with a major media and diplomatic campaign by the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian activists ahead of the UN vote for recognition of a Palestinian state.

The Israeli government states that it is not holding the Palestinian Authority responsible for the cells' presence in the Occupied Territories and that the IDF is "cooperating" with Ramallah to conduct further security sweeps and prepare for Palestinian demonstrations later this month. The following information has been officially released:

On Wednesday (September 7), it was released for publication that the IDF, Israel Security Agency and Israel Police prevented a major terrorist attack in Jerusalem last month.

The attack was thwarted after a terrorist had already entered Jerusalem planning to activate an explosive device on a bus or at a shopping mall in the Pisgat Ze'ev neighborhood [ed note: According to unnamed sources, the "explosive device" was being delivered to a suicide bomber -- Ynet reports that the alleged suicide bomber, a 20-year old male from Hebron, is now in police custody].

The attack was prevented through joint operations by the IDF, ISA and police. During those operations, members of 13 terrorist cells (around 100 terrorists) were arrested. The detained terrorists included some senior operatives.

The ISA has noted that Hamas has been trying to rehabilitate its military infrastructure in Judea and Samaria in order to carry out attacks against Israeli targets.

According to the ISA, Hamas leadership abroad (in Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkey) has provided funding, guidance and training for the establishment of terrorist infrastructure. Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been involved as well, attempting to move weaponry into Judea and Samaria and providing funding for terrorist activities.

Questioning of detained terrorists has revealed that they were instructed to carry out a kidnapping in order to bargain for the release of prisoners [according to media reports, these capture operations constituted the cells' main operational preparations].

Some of those arrested are being linked to a bus bombing in Jerusalem this past March. Connections with Hamas cells and fundraisers in Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Turkey and China have been alluded to by the IDF and Shin Bet.

Few of the arrested individuals have yet been identified, though the Israeli media report that most of those being held in custody are "repeat offenders." These arrests follow the detention of amnestied Hamas founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef (better known as the father of the Shin Bet's former Hamas double agent Mosab Hassan Yousef).

Regarding that arrest, Defense Minister Ehud Barak had this to say, which reflects the Israeli government's position on these most recent arrests:

Readiness is very high. We are determined to strike at those carrying out the attacks, to take action as much as possible to intercept the attack and we are reiterating that responsibility stems from the Gaza Strip. It is not just Islamic Jihad but also Hamas.

It looks like every player in this game is running out of options these days. 

Paul Mutter is a graduate student at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU and a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus.

(Pictured: Meir Dagan and Benjamin Netanyahu in happier times.)

As is its tendency -- simultaneously sober to a fault and arrogant -- the New York Times affixed an unprepossessing headline, A Former Spy Chief Questions the Judgment of Israeli Leaders, to a story which was, in fact, astonishing. Ethan Bronner writes that Mossad's former chief Meir Dagan

. . . contends that Israel’s top leaders lack judgment and that the anticipated pressures of international isolation as the Palestinians campaign for statehood could lead to rash decisions — like an airstrike on Iran.

The former intelligence chief, Meir Dagan. . . . made headlines a few weeks ago when he asserted . . . that a military attack on Iran would be “a stupid idea.” This week Mr. Dagan . . . said that attacking Iran “would mean regional war, and in that case you would have given Iran the best possible reason to continue the nuclear program.” . . .  Mr. Dagan went on to complain that Israel had failed to put forward a peace initiative with the Palestinians and that it had foolishly ignored the Saudi peace initiative promising full diplomatic relations in exchange for a return to the 1967 border lines. He worried that Israel would soon be pushed into a corner.

Dagan also expressed

. . . his belief that his retirement and the retirement of other top security chiefs had taken away a necessary alternative voice in decision making. In recent months, the military chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, and the director of the Shin Bet internal security agency, Yuval Diskin, have also stepped down. . . .  “I decided to speak out because when I was in office, Diskin, Ashkenazi and I could block any dangerous adventure,” he was quoted as saying. “Now I am afraid that there is no one to stop Bibi and Barak. ” . . . This concern was backed by a former Mossad official, Gad Shimron. . . . : “The leadership makes fiery statements, we stepped on the brakes, we are no longer there and we don’t know what will happen.”

Meanwhile Ari Shavit of Haaretz told Bronner

“Dagan is really worried about September,” . . . referring to the month when the Palestinians are expected to ask the United Nations General Assembly to recognize their state within the 1967 border lines. The resolution is expected to pass and to bring new forms of international pressure on Israel. “He is afraid that Israel’s isolation will cause its leaders to take reckless action against Iran,” he said.

Netanyahu and Barak's insulation in their echo chamber parallels Israel's increasing isolation in the world and region.

Meanwhile, with respect to Iran, it behooves the West to heed former U.S. diplomat Thomas Pickering told Seymour Hersh for his recent New Yorker article:

Get off your no-enrichment policy, which is getting you nowhere. Stop your covert activities. Give the Iranians a sign that you're not pursuing regime change. Instead, the Iranians see continued threats, sanctions, and covert operations.