The Iraq War's “Transition” Phase is the Deadliest so Far

As Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush prepare for their foreign policy debate, the Institute for Policy Studies and Foreign Policy In Focus will release a new report on Iraq. Entitled “A Failed Transition: The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War,” this comprehensive assessment finds that casualties rose for Iraqis and U.S. forces alike following the transfer of limited sovereignty on June 30.

“This is a re-run of the Vietnam War on fast-forward,” said Institute for Policy Studies Director John Cavanagh. "It’s astounding that the number of monthly U.S. casualties is higher during this so-called "transition" to Iraqi rule than during the initial six weeks of the U.S. invasion.”

Key Findings
A Failed “Transition”: The Mounting Costs of the Iraq War

“A Failed ‘Transition’” is the most comprehensive accounting of the mounting costs of the Iraq war on the United States, Iraq, and the world. Among its major findings are stark figures about the escalation of costs in these most recent three months of “transition” to Iraqi rule, a period that the Bush administration claimed would be characterized by falling human and economic costs.

1. U.S. Military Casualties Have Been Highest During the “Transition”: U.S. military casualties (wounded and killed) stand at a monthly average of 747 since the so-called “transition” to Iraqi rule on June 28, 2004. This contrasts with a monthly average of 482 U.S. military casualties during the invasion (March 20-May 1, 2003) and a monthly average of 415 during the occupation (May 2, 2003-June 28, 2004).

2. Non-Iraqi Contractor Deaths Have Also Been Highest During the “Transition”: There has also been a huge increase in the average monthly deaths of U.S. and other non-Iraqi contractors since the “transition.” On average, 17.5 contractors have died each month since the June 28 “transition,” versus 7.6 contractor deaths per month during the previous 14 months of occupation.

3. The Estimated Strength of Iraqi Resistance Is Skyrocketing During the “Transition”: Because the U.S. military occupation remains in place, the "transition" has failed to win Iraqi support or diminish Iraqi resistance to the occupation. According to Pentagon estimates, the number of Iraqi resistance fighters has quadrupled between November of 2003 and early September 2004, from 5,000 to 20,000. The Deputy Commander of Coalition forces in Iraq, British Major General Andrew Graham, indicated to Time magazine in early September that he thinks the 20,000 estimate is too low; he estimates Iraqi resistance strength at 40,000-50,000. This rise is even starker when juxtaposed to Brookings Institution estimates that an additional 24,000 Iraqi resistance fighters have been detained or killed between May 2003 and August 2004.

4. The U.S.- led Coalition Is Shrinking Further During the “Transition”: The number of countries in the Coalition backing the U.S.-led war started with 30 on March 18, 2003, then grew in the early months of the war. Since then, eight countries have withdrawn their troops and Costa Rica has demanded to be taken off the coalition list. At the war’s start, coalition countries represented 19.1 percent of the world’s population; today, the remaining countries represent only 13.6 percent of the world’s population.