Special Report
March 2003

Afghanistan:
Between War and Reconstruction:
Where Do We Go From Here?

By Mark Sedra

SRafghan.pdf (157 kb)

• Political Recommendations
• Economic Recommendations
• Military Recommendations
• Conclusions
  
  
• Box 1: Warlords of Two Kinds
  
  
• Endnotes

Warlords of Two Kinds

There are two categories of warlords in Afghanistan today: total spoilers and partial spoilers.2 The majority are partial spoilers, individuals who could conceivably be integrated into a central state system with the right combination of incentives and disincentives. In contrast, total spoilers are innately opposed to central authority and are unappeasable. The only method to constrain and ultimately uproot such implacable figures appears to be the application of sustained pressure, most likely involving the use of force.

Clearly, warlords in all guises pose a daunting challenge to the new regime. Any process to sideline or exclude them would encounter a violent reaction that the central government would likely be unable to handle without outside intervention. There is no option but to integrate partial spoilers into the new polity over time through a policy of negotiation and consensus building, while freezing total spoilers out of the process.

The resilience of the Taliban and Al Qaeda presents a particularly imposing threat to Afghan security. There is mounting evidence that they are regrouping along Afghanistan's eastern border with Pakistan, and have coalesced around former Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his fundamentalist Hizb-I-Islami party. This consortium of total spoilers was allegedly behind a spate of terrorist attacks launched in 2002 against the ATA, Afghan civilians, coalition military forces, and international humanitarian workers. These attacks included a thwarted assassination attempt on President Karzai and a car bombing in Kabul that killed over thirty Afghan civilians. Hekmatyar recently declared a jihad or holy war against U.S. forces and its collaborators, a veiled reference to the Karzai government. Reports also indicate that Hekmatyar's followers and some Taliban fighters have formed a group called Lahskar Fedayan-e-Islami, or Islamic Martyrs Brigade, to conduct suicide attacks against U.S. and ATA targets, a disturbing portent of things to come.3