Strategic Defense Review in Context:
Schedule of Pentagon Reviews and Budgets

Cindy Williams, MIT Security Studies Program, 617-253-1825

The Department of Defense is currently engaged in two separate reviews of defense strategy, force structure, modernization programs, and budgets.

The Rumsfeld Review. The first, headed by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, is the top-to-bottom review of defense strategies, forces, programs, and budgets that President Bush promised during the election campaign. At least 17 different panels, made up of civilians and former senior military officers from inside and outside the Pentagon, are contributing to the review, which began shortly after Secretary Rumsfeld arrived in the Pentagon and is often referred to as the Rumsfeld Review. Results of the panel deliberations are closely held by the participants; senior service members and members of Congress have expressed consternation over the lack of transparency and consultation. Initial press reports indicate that the recommendations coming from the various panels conflict with each other on some important issues. Nevertheless, the Secretary has indicated he expects to release preliminary results of the review to the public in May.

The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). The other review is the QDR, mandated by Congress in Section 118 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000. That law requires the Secretary of Defense to conduct a review of national defense strategy, force structure, force modernization plans, infrastructure, budget plans, and other elements of the defense program, and to report to Congress by September 30th 2001 on the results of the review. The law requires the Secretary to undertake the review in consultation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It further requires the Chairman to provide an assessment of the review to the Secretary, and requires the Secretary to include the Chairman's assessment in the September report to Congress.

Preparations for the QDR began in the Defense Department about a year before President Bush took office. Each of the uniformed services established a QDR office to develop its view of the future, analyze military options, and articulate its role. The Office of the Secretary of Defense created a roundtable forum to discuss issues related to the review with members of those offices, and began some analyses of its own. The National Defense University prepared a study of important issues that were likely to shape the review. Since the Rumsfeld Review began, much of that work has been put on hold.

Relationship between the reviews. The ultimate relationship between the two reviews is not clear. Some observers believe the results of the Rumsfeld Review will be incorporated into "strong guidance" from the Secretary to the services and OSD, who will work together to complete the mandated QDR. Others believe that there will be no separate QDR; instead, the Rumsfeld Review will result in strong guidance for budget preparations. According to this view, any report sent to Congress in September will be no more than a formality; all the big decisions are being made in the Rumsfeld Review.

Three simultaneous budget processes. Whatever the outcome of the two reviews, the budgets the Bush Administration submits to Congress will be the result of negotiations between Secretary Rumsfeld and the President's Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Currently, the Administration is dealing with three separate budgets processes simultaneously:

• The request for an emergency supplemental appropriation for the current year, Fiscal Year 2001. Press reports suggest that Secretary Rumsfeld and OMB disagree on the size and content of the request. The Pentagon indicates that it hopes to submit the request to Congress by the end of May.
• Details and adjustments to the budget request for Fiscal Year 2002, which the Administration submitted without details in April. Details and adjustments will probably be provided to Congress by the end of June. If Congress is to vote on appropriation and authorization bills before the fiscal year begins on October 1, 2001, then Congressional committee hearings and markups of the bills will be squeezed into a very short time period. (Normally hearings would begin in March and markups would be completed in July, before the Congressional recess in August.)
• The budget request for Fiscal Year 2003 and Future-Years Defense Program (FYDP) for FY 2003-07. The budget and the six-year plan will be submitted to Congress in January 2002. The Rumsfeld Review (and some say the QDR) is expected to provide fiscal guidance and strategic guidance. The services have nearly completed work on their input to the budget process, called Program Objective Memoranda (POMs). Conforming to the Secretary's fiscal and strategic guidance may require substantial rework, however. Press reports indicate that the POMs, normally due from the services to OSD in May, will be due in late July, giving OSD and OMB a few months to review them and prepare the January 2002 budget submission.

The 2001 supplemental request and the detailed 2002 budget will not include details for later years. Thus the full impact of guidance coming out of the two Pentagon reviews will probably not be known until January 2002 or after, when the Bush Administration submits the Fiscal Year 2003 budget request and supporting details to Congress.

This page was last modified on Tuesday, June 3, 2003 6:18 PM
Contact the IRC's webmaster with inquiries regarding the functionality of this website.
Copyright © 2001 IRC. All rights reserved.